A Financial Engineering Approach to Identify Stock Market Bubble

In this paper we adopt an engineering method based on Al-Anaswah and Wilfling, state space model with Markov-switching, to capture the speculative bubbles of stock markets in China and US. We present the VAR log linear asset pricing model in state space model with Markov-switching, so that we can capture the unobservable speculative bubbles. Based on the dataset from Stock markets in China and US, we find empirically that the engineering technique we choose detect the stock markets bubbles effectively, and that the switching probabilities between the surviving and collapsing regimes. In-the-sample and out-of-sample forecasting further support our empirical evidence. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of Desheng Dash Wu